The Dynamic Nature of Deterrence in South Asia

The South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) is an independent think tank

dedicated to promoting peace and stability in South Asia. It takes a multi-disciplinary

approach focused on strategic stability aimed at bringing together various streams of

thought from the social and natural sciences, the policymakers and academia.

An in-house talk was held at SASSI, Islamabad, on February 11, 2009. Brig (Retd)

Samson Simon Sharaf, political and security analyst, was the guest speaker.

In the opening remarks Director of South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)

Maria Sultan highlighted the concept of deterrence and introduced the guest speaker to

the audience.

Masood Ur Rehman, a research fellow at SASSI, made a brief presentation on deterrence

in South Asia. He elaborated on the credibility of nuclear deterrence in South Asia, BMD

technology by India, arms race between India and Pakistan, terrorists and extremists and

also highlighted the other issues including Kashmir dispute, water-sharing disputes

between India and Pakistan.

 Brig (Retd) Samson Simon Sharaf presented the changing dynamics of nuclear deterrence

in South Asia. He highlighted that having acquired much of the knowledge on nuclear

strategy from western and American writers, both Pakistan and India have tended to

dwell too deep into the semantics of the term and simplifications. In the process, we lost

our logic and thinking by the wayside. He emphasized the deterrence typologies,

technicalities, groupings, etc. He quoted the Bernhard Brodie as saying that a nuclear

bomb is a weapon of peace and not a super bomb. Nuclear deterrence is all about war

avoidance and not war-fighting strategy.

Brig (Retd) Sharaf gave his own interpretation of deterrence as a cost-benefit analysis of

the gains and losses in credible, capable and hostile environments, with a common and

well understood strategic concept and language between the adversaries warranting a

constant appraisal of capabilities and vulnerabilities.

He highlighted the concept of ‘balance of terror’, ‘strategy of compellance’, ‘evolution of

nuclear deterrence’ and ‘the challenges faced by deterrence during Cold War’. Regarding

the changing dynamics of deterrence in South Asia, Pakistan’s fear of becoming

vulnerable to a first strike (and/or a desire to attain first-strike capability) gives

technology a central role in deterrence, and tends to fuel a high-intensity qualitative arms

race. Pakistan has to develop and adopt effective controls on the Graduated Escalation

Ladder both in conventional and nuclear forces to retain the initiative of nuclear

retaliation. He further talked about the growing Indo-US strategic relationship and its

impact on Pakistan strategic stability and stated that India cannot compete against China

on a nuclear platform.

In the end, he stated that Pakistan’s nuclear forces in terms of technical capability appear

more than equal and in some aspects ahead of India. India appears stronger in defence

and residual capability. Perhaps too strong if the ambivalence of Indo-US nuclear treaty,

surveillance, missile defence and TU44s are also to be factorized. Pakistan’s major

problems lie in the overarching role of the army in policymaking, political instability,

institutionalized corruption, civil war, poor economic policies and fragmentation of

society. All these factors, mostly indigenous create a doubt about the efficacy of

cognitive controls. Pakistan’s gradual surrender to compellance imposed by Indo-US

pressures reflects a fragile and self-centered national leadership. This casts an aspersion

on the will and determination needed to handle a deterrence regime.

In question-answer session, Dr. Riffat Hussain, chairman of the Department of Defence

and Strategic Studies, QAU, said that the BJP had stated in its manifesto that they would

conduct nuclear test and it was not a surprise for the world. He said that compellence

never works but deterrence and further asked are you suggesting that Indo-US strategic

partnership would draw Pakistan into a status of compellance. In his reply, Brig (Retd)

Sharaf said that Pakistan has never been intermediated by nuclear weapons. It is basically

US strategic interests that matter as there is no concept of permanent friendship in the

real politics. Now, due to shift of interests of the US, a front-line state in the so-called

war against terrorism has become a backline state.

 In the end, SASSI Director Maria Sultan thanked the audience and appreciated their

presence.

SASSI Profile

The South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) is an independent think tank

dedicated to promoting peace and stability in South Asia. The South Asian Strategic

Stability Institute takes a multi-disciplinary approach focused on strategic stability,

aimed at bringing together various streams of thought from the social and natural

sciences, the policymakers and academia.